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China has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles past outlying Japanese territory as China ramps up tensions following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the Chinese coast guard announced that its vessels conducted a “lawful patrol operation” through the waters of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Japan but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it could trigger a military response from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has signalled it expects a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it describes as “reunification”. It has left open the use of force. Taiwan’s government and people categorically refuse the prospect of Chinese rule – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by Beijing would risk escalating into a regional or global conflict, possibly drawing in the US and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Military Activity

On the island, the defence ministry reported this weekend that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one government vessel, which was likely the coast guard, active near the territory over the past 24 hours.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, seeming to travel particularly close to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Earlier this weekend, the ministry said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “test our defensive capabilities”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to track the developments. Taiwan reports such Chinese patrols a couple of times a month as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Japan has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her remarks, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by stating that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and Beijing's military authorities stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be doomed to fail.

Warning for Citizens

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, prompting Tokyo to urge Beijing to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Multiple carriers from China announced this weekend that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on the weekend urged its citizens to “carefully reconsider” studying in Japan, citing what it characterized as an volatile safety situation.

Although not an outright prohibition, a significant decrease in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were enrolled in Japanese schools last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other nations, including the US, and could quickly spiral into a large-scale conflict with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the US.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the People’s Republic of China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it moves towards being capable of military annexation, China has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.