Daily Homicides in Mexico Drop 37% In the Sheinbaum Administration, According to Government Statistics

The average count of daily homicides per month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh government statistics. But, public safety experts have warned that homicide numbers might not signal enhanced national stability.

Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages

There was an average of almost 55 homicides a day in the month of November as opposed to nearly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September. This announcement was delivered by the head of the nation's national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we’ve had over these months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum said, adding that the previous month the lowest figure of murders were recorded for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Intense cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly militarised efforts to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The rate hit a maximum of 36,773 killings in 2020, as reported by the nation's national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over four times greater than the US. However, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has credited her national security approach for an ostensibly sharper reduction in killings this year.

At a news briefing in August, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s security plan include:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Enhancing information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater collaboration between various authorities.

Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns

But, public safety experts warned that focusing solely on homicide data to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is particularly true considering the uptick in other criminal activities such as abductions.

“This would be very good information if this was a decrease, but I think we can’t just focus on the homicide data and conclude: ‘Well then, great,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be tentatively positive.”

Per the policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings overall dropped by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have risen by as much as 200%.

“Data on murders is no longer valid for estimating the context of public insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the desire to properly identify and classify remains. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the ability to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas added that using month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also concerning because it might hide periods when there were particularly elevated levels of murders.

“Employing the daily mean renders surges of violent crime invisible,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Measures of Progress

An area where the administration can cite the success of its security plan is on detentions and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s extremely in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

Yet in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be beset by severe bloodshed, with a number of regions in the throes of cartel-related violence. Recently there was a notable killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

A short time later, many thousands of youth protested in the capital and across the nation to express their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a manner to create a picture of safety. Politically it’s extremely effective, socially it’s extremely debatable,” Vargas concluded.