Keir Starmer's Allies Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an upcoming byelection.

Serious Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have warned against overstating the level of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to dominate it.

The trade unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a significant challenge, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his involvement in an inappropriate online group.